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Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning Gloom and Doom: Part I of III
Gloom and Doom: Part II of III
Gloom and Doom: Part III of III
Introduction
Especially in the previous year, it appears as if society as a whole has had an unhealthy fixation with all events remotely connected to the final demise of civilization, as we know it. This made apparent not only by the mainstream popularity of the Left Behind series, a fictional account of end-times as foretold by the Bible, but in popular culture as well, with the surprising success of the movie The Day After Tomorrow. Most critics have shunned these as the ranting of religious fundamentalists and Hollywood-backed environmentalists. Yet, the fascination remains the same, and continues to be pervasive in books, movies, magazines and particularly the media.
Although, after closer inspection, I have determined this morbid interest is more like a roller coaster ride of disparaging sentiment, and at this point in history we are gearing up for that much anticipated screaming descent. The last point in time we witnessed such a narrow focus on this sort of "gloom and doom" was during the Cold War, where even unto the farthest reaches of the globe, it seemed to all a nuclear holocaust was inescapable. A slew of fiction and film was released post-mortem, examining the possible outcomes of such an event, the movie War Games still among my many favorites.
An assessment of this phenomenon peaked my interested further, and I considered the probability of such events actually occurring – excluding theological presuppositions. Sidestepping my strong religious convictions, I wanted to know what are the real threats, if any, that science believes could extinguish life on Earth or drastically transform our economic and social well being – due in part to natural occurrences, human intervention or a combination of both? Over the following weeks, I will be reviewing for Pixelsurgeon three nonfiction books that tackle this issue. Appropriately enough, I will be calling it the Gloom and Doom series.
In considering which books to review, it was necessary that they meet certain basic criteria. First and foremost, they must not be overtly skewed towards any political or ideological agenda. Secondly, the book must attempt to reach hard scientific conclusions, devoid of philosophical dribble. My hope is that as you read these reviews (and possibly these books), you will gain a greater understanding of how this gloom and doom permeates our psyche, and with a more objective outlook, you will be able to determine if you are being taken for a ride.
Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning
How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in This Century – On Earth and Beyond
A plethora of newspaper quotes from book reviewers adorns the back of the Our Final Hour dust jacket. These reviews give praise for two of Martin Rees's previous works, Just Six Numbers and Before the Beginning. I decided to give Rees the benefit of the doubt regarding the quality of his most recent work. Besides, this was a first printing library copy. Maybe in another library, in another town, in another universe, there was a second printing giving this book its due acclaim. I doubt it.
I initially chose Our Final Hour based on reviews throughout several Web sites, and because the table of contents, at first glance, gives the impression of a breadth of knowledge. In order to broach our expansive subject matter, I believed a review of this book would be a good starting point. For the first six chapters, I firmly believed I had hit the mark. However, as I continued reading, the content slowly unraveled. I began to wonder if the final six chapters were simply portions of previous manuscripts that ended up victim to the author's editor. Tired of arguing, I am sure the editor threw up his hands in disgust and erroneously allowed the pages to be included in this book.
The title of the book would also suggest that this is an exhaustive study of scenarios examining the odds of survival for humankind within the next hundred years. Yet, over the course of his dialogue, Rees speaks frequently in millions and billions of years. When discussing baseline hazards such as an asteroid impact or the failure of our primary energy source, the sun, it is necessary to consider those probabilities within the context of millions and billions of years. However, to devote several chapters to this type of subject matter is a bit like pulling the wool over the lamb's eyes. Unless I am mistaken, a century is still one hundred years, not one hundred million. So why bother? There are so many more possibilities to consider. Rees is simply unable to stifle his knowledge of the cosmos and stick to the topic at hand.
For all its shortcomings, Rees did pinpoint some key issues, mostly as I said, in the first six chapters. I would start with his mention of the "singularity", a concept Rees rightly attributes to Vernor Vinge, who he calls a Californian futurologist. Excuse my simplicity if I call him a science fiction novelist. If you are any bit of a science fiction buff, then I am sure you have experienced the singularity. Rees explains: "Once machines have surpassed human intelligence, they could themselves design and assemble a new generation of even more intelligent ones. This could then repeat itself, with technology racing towards a cusp, or "singularity," at which the rate of innovation runs away towards infinity."
Any recent work that examines the prospective bleakness of our future would be incomplete without the study of human behavior, most notably, the study of terrorists and how their behavior could drastically affect the world around us. Rees recognizes this, and his chapters Post-2000 Threats and Perpetrators and Palliatives set out with promise to uncover undeniable truths. Thankfully, he is not resolute with analyzing only the events of 9/11, and in his best writing yet, he does justice to the theme. Terrorism has much broader implications than what Al Qaeda would have us to believe, and what governments are willing to disclose.
Bioattacks are what Rees focuses his attention on, and I was rather intrigued by his mention of threats I had not even considered. He points out that the eradication of the smallpox virus is not as clear cut as common history books reveal. According to the author, stocks of the disease are still maintained in two locations, the Center for Disease Control, in Atlanta, GA, USA, and Vector Laboratory in Moscow, Russia. The justification for preserving these viruses is so that they could be used to help develop vaccines. Rees points out that there is growing concern that clandestine caches of the virus may exist in other countries, raising fears of a smallpox outbreak from a bioterror incident. If you are not already aware, smallpox kills about one-third of those who succumb to it. A scarce number of vaccines readily available could be devastating for a large city, causing millions of casualties. Smallpox 2002: Silent Weapon, a docudrama broadcast by the BBC, portrayed a single suicidal fanatic in New York who infected enough people to trigger a pandemic that claimed sixty million victims.
The cause for concern is not actually with the smallpox virus itself. It is with the method by which it is delivered, that is to say, who is doing the delivering. In the BBC docudrama, a suicidal fanatic, not an Islamic extremist, delivers the virus. Although government entities like the FBI profile those most likely to commit such an act, it is highly unlikely, without tips from concerned citizens, that they would stop an individual before it is too late. As Rees points out, this is quite a quandary. What freedoms are worth losing for the protection of the human race? Protection could only come by denying the common citizen access to sensitive materials, including some college coursework, science and engineering books and the Internet. Short of suggesting we all be implanted with RFID (radio frequency identification) chips, so the government can keep tabs, Rees does not offer anything palatable.
There are a few other areas of interest that Rees covers, like global warming and the consequences of the misuse of our environment, but it reads more like Cliff Notes for a natural science textbook. Our Final Hour was a noteworthy attempt at addressing some key gloom and doom issues, but it failed to scrutinize in more detail those nuggets of information that transform our thinking and shape our behavior. If you are in your local library or bookstore and have an hour to spare, I would suggest reading chapters two, four and five – skip the rest, you will be happy you did.
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