 |
The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence Gloom and Doom: Part II of III
Gloom and Doom: Part I of III
Gloom and Doom: Part III of III
Introduction
During part one of the Gloom and Doom series, I pinpointed two key areas of concern taken from Our Final Hour, written by Martin Rees. The first was the theoretical concept of a fast approaching “singularity”, and the second was bioengineered weapons, notably in the form of common virus strains like smallpox. Part two of this series will take us further down those dark roads, into the not-too-distant projected future, as foretold by scientist and inventor Ray Kurzweil in his book The Age of Spiritual Machines. Although the book was published over five years ago, it still stands as one of the preeminent works on this type of subject matter. Keep an eye out for Kurzweil’s new book, which will be released September 2005, and is aptly named, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology.
The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
Kurzweil approaches The Age of Spiritual Machines like any good scientist would approach a PhD dissertation. He formulates a question, examines an unproven premise and then uses pliable research to support his thesis. Geared towards this goal, the book is divided into three parts – the past, the present and the future. Building off his book knowledge of the past and his practical knowledge of the present, he gives us his glimpse into the future. So what is the question he seeks to answer? What ostensible scenario is laid out before us? “What happens when computers exceed human intelligence?”
Admittedly, Kurzweil is highly qualified to write this book. We know, because throughout we are treated to a barrage of shameless self-promotion. Most of it is ironically quite interesting. Kurzweil first garnered international fame with his invention of the Kurzweil Reading Machine, which was then bought and sold later as Xerox’s TextBridge. Stevie Wonder was among the first to purchase the device, an optical reader with print-to-speech capabilities so the blind could read writing without having to purchase the Braille equivalent. Kurzweil has endured in several areas where others have failed with technological innovations, so we can give him his due credit without scoffing too quickly at his insights.
My only real complaint is that Kurzweil knows little of his extended audience. He has much to say, but he is not quite sure who might be listening. He knows without a strict scientific basis to support his claims regarding our future, he will alienate the labcoats. This is obvious throughout all of part one, where highly complicated scientific themes are discussed at length, including the Law of Time and Chaos, the Law of Accelerating Returns, quantum mechanics and thermodynamics. Yet, he indulges in creative writing at times that panders to Trekkies and Star Wars geeks, myself not withstanding. A rather distracting example would be his conversation with Molly, a fictional reader who individually experiences advancing technologies and with whom the author engages in conversation. Molly eventually ends up a persona and less a person, as her brain’s neural net has been scanned and she is eventually a virtual copy of a copy.
After finishing the book, I suppose I can understand this tactic. Kurzweil firmly believes the next obvious step in the evolutionary process is the merger of our brains with our machines, just like Molly. The author gleefully proclaims this process will begin to happen in the next fifty years. Even if only to sell copies of his book, in order to get that far fetched, you need to start at the beginning. You must include science as well as a bit of science fiction. Among other things, the philosophical and spiritual implications of this outlook also need to be taken into account, and Kurzweil is not oblivious to that fact given the title of the book.
This is where it all gets dicey. Given that Mankind has trouble defining consciousness for the human species alone, how could we begin to define it for machines? Now merge the two, and you have an even harder time differentiating. Intelligence and knowledge is only one end of the spectrum, but our spiritual appetites give us a greater sense of being. It was disappointing to read Kurzweil’s analysis of this age-old mystery. Specific regions of our brain are known to produce chemicals during prayer, meditation and similar spiritual experiences. This can sometimes manifest itself as a “high” or a relaxed state of mind. According to the author, understand and tap into the neural network of the brain responsible for that high, and you can give machines the same sense of spirituality we possess. With that simple explanation, I assume most would prefer it remain an age-old mystery.
For all the hoopla associated with making seemingly outrageous claims, there are areas of biology and technology research that Kurzweil cites, which are astonishingly familiar to the current day. His most poignant is of progress made with neural implants. Doctors at a French clinic gave patients with advanced stages of Parkinson’s disease, the ability to walk around, and calmly and expressively describe how they have overcome their debilitating symptoms. Keep in mind, this was not a dubious trick – the patients were wheeled in on stretchers, completely immobilized and near catatonic.
So, you are probably asking at this point, what does this have to do with our series on gloom and doom? Helping to cure Parkinson’s disease sounds like a step in the right direction! For all of Kurzweil’s fanciful ideas, he paints a pretty rosy portrait of the next century, but given all the amazing possibilities, he does not deny there could be some dire consequences. The most obvious being backlash and public outcry.
Relative to the present time, consider the emotions stirred over stem cell research and cloning. The most conservative citizens will agree that researchers with free reign could make progress never dreamed of just ten years earlier, but at what costs? In a stunning move, Kurzweil publishes a dissenting argument to uninhibited progress, which most would nod their head in agreement to after reading it. Not until the end does he unveil the secret – the text is from Industrial Society and Its Future, also known as the Unabomber Manifesto, by Theodore Kaczynski.
Dealing with amoral zealots who will utilize any means necessary to stop the process of scientific discovery is actually the smallest of concerns. Controlling the accidental or the purposed release of deadly manufactured pathogens is on the more serious side of the coin. In our quest to understand our bodies on an atomic level, and in our search for ways to manipulate and destroy strains of viral infections, we will open Pandora’s box. This knowledge will become readily available and the means will exist for anyone with the right equipment to create new disease agents with enormous destructive potential. Think of it as a home chemistry set for the year 2029 terrorist.
On a more economic scale, Kurzweil states that automating tasks that humans used to do will exponentially become the norm. One prediction he has correct and that most serious futurologists will agree on is that in the next few decades, the total processing speed and memory capacity of personal computers will surpass that of the human brain. This achievement will bring us one step closer to passing the buck, literally. The sociological implications could become widespread.
Of course, our programmable counterparts will be just that – programmed. We will still need to give extensive directions, and several paradigms easily solved by a human will be exceedingly difficult for machines, unless we develop the protocol. There are immense difficulties behind developing advanced facial recognition systems, or even better, giving a computer the ability to take creative license when writing a screenplay, painting a picture or designing a Web site. These tasks are no small feat, but we can be certain the necessary processing speed and memory will no longer be a barrier.
If Kurzweil’s visions are accurate, we may be in for a surprise. I have several misgivings about his prophecies, as will you if you choose to read The Age of Spiritual Machines. You can calmly continue your day, and your life, knowing the likelihood you will be replaced by the machines in Kurzweil’s future is doubtful. However, you can be entertained by the following quotes, from those who also had doubts, and were wrong about a few things.
"640,000 bytes of memory ought to be enough for anybody."
– Bill Gates, 1981
"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
– Popular Mechanics, 1949
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
– IBM Chairman Thomas Watson, 1943
"Airplanes have no military value."
– Professor Marshal Michelson, 1903
|
